tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14499590092217885712024-03-13T03:41:46.558-07:00Statistical SalvationOfficial Church of Fantasy HockeyMatthew Perryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04218144346050739531noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1449959009221788571.post-70245741722319790402012-02-07T07:15:00.000-08:002012-02-07T08:03:38.585-08:00Born Again Fantasy Gamble of the Week . . .Fantasy sports are just like people. They make mistakes. They sin. They see the error in their ways and they repent and sometimes it sticks for longer periods of time than others.<br />
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In this section I will pick a player who has done just that. Under-performed, misbehaved or generally exhibited behavior unbecoming of a fantasy roster spot who I believe will turn it around. These guys can usually be had pretty cheaply and can occasionally pay huge dividends.<br />
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My pick this week is Brad Boyes of the Buffalo Sabres. I know, but if you are still reading . . . congratulations. I have three solid reasons why he is worth the gamble.<br />
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Factor 1.) He has about 30 games left in his contract year. He wants to get paid. He will show up and play as hard as he ever has. In fantasy hockey, you have no doubt ridden a player in his contract year to the Promised Land. This could be your chance to do it again.<br />
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Factor 2.) If he isn't in the Sabres' long-term plans he could be moved to a contender. This will give him a solid boost as well. Even if he stays with the Sabres, if he stays healthy there should be more than enough ice time to go around with a club as snake-bit as they have been this season.<br />
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Factor 3) I happen to have long-term split stats backing me up that Brad Boyes has always been a post-All Star break boom.<br />
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A visit in the confessional with Boyes looks a little something like this.<br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-X_6-XBgowWo/TzE6RnQlu-I/AAAAAAAAAHg/0M1_xokc5Dc/s1600/Boyesshots.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="464" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-X_6-XBgowWo/TzE6RnQlu-I/AAAAAAAAAHg/0M1_xokc5Dc/s640/Boyesshots.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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As you can see his shots per game increase slightly after the All Star Game. It isn't a huge increase, but couple that with an increase from .117 to .128 in shooting percentage and it can add up quickly.<br />
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What it adds up to is the most telling stat of all.<br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-JjAKbzrUeyo/TzE6sv7U-CI/AAAAAAAAAHo/zNKuW_2Wv9E/s1600/Boyesppg.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="464" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-JjAKbzrUeyo/TzE6sv7U-CI/AAAAAAAAAHo/zNKuW_2Wv9E/s640/Boyesppg.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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Boyes is a career .67 point per game (PPG) performer. This season he is performing at .35 PPG. Couple this with factors one and two and you have a guy just on the cusp of busting out. Over the course of his career Boyes has performed just below .65 PPG in the first half of the season. In the second half if skyrockets to .72 PPG.<br />
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Finally I will rely on a stat that I don't like too much. In my opinion the only time plus/minus tells an interesting and accurate story is when the results are vastly different for a very extended period of time. This just happens to be one of those cases.<br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-DwRIeGtUtOY/TzE7jKfP9EI/AAAAAAAAAHw/Z5BFGjtkFpk/s1600/Boyesplus.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="464" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-DwRIeGtUtOY/TzE7jKfP9EI/AAAAAAAAAHw/Z5BFGjtkFpk/s640/Boyesplus.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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You are reading that right. Pre-All Star break Brad Boyes is a career -22. Post-All Star break Brad Boyes is a +4. That should allude to him being a better player in the second half as well as an increase in special teams work.<br />
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So armed with this knowledge is Brad Boyes someone you have a roster spot for? Perhaps due to injury. Perhaps you have an open spot due to a trade where you upgraded in a two for one one deal. If so here is how I recommend going about obtaining him.<br />
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Ideally he has been dropped after a mere 11 points in the first half. However, if he happens to be on someone else's roster, and they don't read this blog, here is my advice. Find a different deal you want. Get close in negotiating that trade and try to get Boyes as an add-on. I have a feeling most GMs will have tired by his shenanigans and let him walk quite readily.<br />
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So will you roll the dice with Brad Boyes? If you will what is your game plan?<br />
<br />Matthew Perryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04218144346050739531noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1449959009221788571.post-39855539674570846422012-02-06T07:12:00.000-08:002012-02-06T11:45:41.178-08:00"Sin binners" who can lead you to the promised landIf you are link most fantasy GMs at this time of year you are having injury problems. However, if you have navigated the season so far and are still in contention congratulations are in order. If your players are now returning from injury you are in a good spot to make a run at your league title. However, if you are just now losing players and watching your lead dwindle day by day help is here. I have compiled a list of players how should be available in your league who can ease your pain, mostly by inflicted in on others. If your league scores PIMs, hits or rewards any kind of general thuggery or sinning I have some stats you will be interested in.<br />
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Misbehaving isn't such a bad thing in many pools. You probably think most of the valuable goons are already playing for your competition. However, I have a list of 25 guys who's combination of grit and goals could nab you some important points down the stretch. Many are available in standard leagues.</div>
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To decide who made the list I blindly gave two fantasy points per NHL point, awarded .25 of a point for PIM and divided it by games played. This gives you an idea of what you will be getting down the stretch in both daily, weekly and cumulative leagues. Here is what the numbers say.</div>
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xFtd4OFVrtg/Ty_ps0G1pHI/AAAAAAAAAHQ/aDSx8zSE5ww/s1600/SinBinners.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="464" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xFtd4OFVrtg/Ty_ps0G1pHI/AAAAAAAAAHQ/aDSx8zSE5ww/s640/SinBinners.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b><i>(<a href="http://i40.tinypic.com/9pqr03.jpg" target="_blank">a better image </a></i></b><b><i><a href="http://i40.tinypic.com/9pqr03.jpg" target="_blank">of these bad guys</a></i></b><b><i><a href="http://i40.tinypic.com/9pqr03.jpg" target="_blank"> is available here</a>) </i></b></div>
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Right off the bat you will see some guys who should not be available in your pool. Clarkson, Simmonds, and Downie, Steward just to name a few. If those guys are available in your pool, and your league is made up of more than six teams. Stop reading and go get them.</div>
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Assuming they are not, lets take a look at some of the other guys. Steve Ott has a nice balance of points, PIMs and top line minutes. He is netting about 1.6 fantasy points per game in the most basic of pools and this could increase as the season closes. </div>
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Nick Foligno has had a great year with 31 points and is closing in on 100 PIMs. He could see his role increase at any time due to injury and his flexibility to play both centre and winger. Interestingly he is joined by fellow Sens Chris Neil, Zack Smith and Zenon Konopka. Neil is currently on both PP units, but with the current struggle in that department it isn't the boost one would expect.</div>
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Derek Dorsett is an interesting option. He is playing on Columbus' second line and has 130 PIMs to go with 14 points. I expect to see those points rise once the Blue Jackets get healthy and adapt to their role as playoff spoiler.<br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-248-Hjdc0Q8/Ty_vzbSFBKI/AAAAAAAAAHY/a8JrxCvmEHY/s1600/Derek_Dorsett.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-248-Hjdc0Q8/Ty_vzbSFBKI/AAAAAAAAAHY/a8JrxCvmEHY/s320/Derek_Dorsett.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<b><i>Derek Dorsett could be making some noise down the stretch.</i></b></div>
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Rene Bourque is interesting too. He seems to be adapting to Montreal well and is one of their "tougher" players. His second line minutes and is the lone Hab with the ability or at least interest to go into the dirty areas to get scoring chances. If other GMs bailed on him while he struggled in Calgary why not give him a shot and hope for one of his famous hot streaks.</div>
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As always keep an eye on the hockey markets other GMs tend to ignore. Nashville with Tootoo, Clutterbuck in Minny and Martin with the Islanders. Also keep in mind some contenders who will likely be engaging in some wars down the stretch to jostle for playoff positing. Shawn Thornton, Maxim Lapierre and Zac Rinaldo all fit that bill.</div>
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So if you had room for one of these miscreants on your team who would you pull from fantasy purgatory?</div>
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<br /></div>Matthew Perryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04218144346050739531noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1449959009221788571.post-64067056110729039172012-02-03T06:18:00.000-08:002012-02-06T07:15:25.324-08:00When to stop believing in a saintly centre<div style="text-align: left;">
My fantasy flock, let us play . . .</div>
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We are faced with many, many decisions year in and year out as members of the Cult of Fantasy Hockey. However, one of the hardest is when to let a player go. Especially a player who has provided us with so much enjoyment and value over the years. It is hard in fantasy hockey because it is all numbers-based. There is no worrying about what the fans think. There is no pillar of the community. There is no diminished role for the aging veteran who is great in the dressing room. There is simply a roster spot. A roster spot that needs a specific number of points produced from it for you to have a shot a the title.<br />
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As I have outlined I love centres. They collect second assists and spit out fantasy production like fishes and loaves. However, they eventually reach the end of the line. I have often wondered, "At what age do #1 centres break down." This week I spent some time studying the Scripture of Statistics and feel I have had a breakthrough. However, before we take a knee at the Alter of Addition lets be true to our stat-loving hearts and check the methodology. For this I only considered centres over six feet tall. These tend to be pillars of teams with a frame that allows them to hold the #1 centre position for years on end. For this reason we omit Yzerman and Sakic. I eliminated the greats because their numbers are stupid and skew our findings. No Gretzky, No Lemieux. I only took players who played in at least two decades (80s, 90s etc.) and at least eight full seasons. </div>
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-1J9Ddq1STNs/Tyv139Lnk5I/AAAAAAAAAF0/u1HDHX_aA74/s1600/lindros.jpg"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5704923694659769234" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-1J9Ddq1STNs/Tyv139Lnk5I/AAAAAAAAAF0/u1HDHX_aA74/s200/lindros.jpg" style="cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 150px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; margin-top: 0px; text-align: center; width: 200px;" /></a><br />
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<b><i>What if this hadn't been such a familiar sight</i>?</b></div>
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The questions I hope to address is:</div>
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When should you make a reach on a centre?</div>
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When should you cut bait or start moving these types of players down the draft board?</div>
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Included in this small samples size are:</div>
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<li>Lindros</li>
<li>Francis</li>
<li>Sundin</li>
<li>Thornton</li>
<li>Modano</li>
<li>Federov</li>
<li>Messier</li>
<li>Richards</li>
<li>Nieuwendyk</li>
<li>Lecavalier</li>
<li>Marleau</li>
<li>Linden</li>
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If there are any obvious omissions please let me know, but in the meantime let's begin. Here is the first graph.</div>
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<img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5704916821564436738" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-JjIEM9bUiLs/Tyvvn45_sQI/AAAAAAAAAFQ/9y5r3Y_EA6U/s400/Big%2BCentre%2BAge.jpg" style="cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 290px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; margin-top: 0px; text-align: center; width: 400px;" /><br />
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<b><i>(a better image can be found here </i></b><span style="text-align: left;"><b><i><a href="http://tinypic.com/r/c2f5d/5">http://tinypic.com/r/c2f5d/5</a></i></b></span><b><i><a href="http://tinypic.com/r/c2f5d/5"> </a>)</i></b></div>
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From this graph you will notice that the career average for these types of centres tends to hover at about .9 points per game. Their peak years tend to be 20-27. There are a few bumps on the radar for 33 year-olds, but don't be fooled. There was just a large number of retirements in that area skewing the stats upward.</div>
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My first question was, when should I make a play on a centre. This is a case where I would adhere to the year three breakout philosophy. Believe in that my flock. In a keeper pool I have seen enough to suggestion a minor reach in their second year or at 20 years of age. In re-draft leages this is when I would add them to my "reach list". It seems to be a wise investment. However, there are so many big centres who will never put up even .7 points a game. This practice is a risky one. That is why the second question is more important to me.</div>
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For one reason or another you have landed an elite centre on your roster. I have often thought with their size and the minutes they log that these players break down more quickly than we perceive. According to that graph players remain productive into their early 30s, but the decline after 33 tends to be short and swift. Many stop playing or lose their starting roles or valuable power-play time. This means in keeper leagues the time to trade them is between the ages of 32-34. The earlier you move them the more you will probably get in return, if there is a trade to be had, but you could also see multiple years of success for them on another GMs franchise. Be prepared for this, but as long as you are smart about what you get in return it is a penance well worth enduring. </div>
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<img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5704924112681253410" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-dolKaVLxfEw/Tyv2QSbtOiI/AAAAAAAAAGA/Le6sh88IUDo/s200/Ron-Francis-LGt.jpg" style="color: #0000ee; cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 200px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; margin-top: 0px; text-align: center; text-decoration: underline; width: 150px;" /><br />
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<b><i>Unloved for years, Ron Francis played for a few unsexy teams,<br />won a few Cups and even more Fantasy Leagues for savvy GMs</i></b>.</div>
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One final finding I came across was how many productive guys fly under the radar. Rod Brind'Amour helped me to many a title as a 10th or 11th round pick. He wasn't a sexy draft pick, but he was a stable .8 points a game for his career. If I blew this list out he would be included with out a doubt. My point is look for guys like this. One such guy that IS on this list is Ron Francis. Hugely underrated over the course of his career he was actually the top PPG getting on this list in 11 years. Including the top PPG guy for 18 year-olds on this list and every year except for two for all 32-43 year olds. Think about how much lower you could have gotten Francis in drafts instead of Messier or Fedorov? Those are reading from the Gospel of Numbers that make a difference between 4th and 1st. </div>
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Look at he graph below to see how guys performed year in and year out.</div>
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<img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5704921368312488722" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-cV2PbkeEa3Q/Tyvzwi3NIxI/AAAAAAAAAFc/-FqTZ_oH5Ks/s400/PPGbyYear.jpg" style="cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 286px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; margin-top: 0px; text-align: center; width: 400px;" /><i></i><br />
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<i><i>(a better image can be found here <a href="http://tinypic.com/r/v48js3/5%20)">http://tinypic.com/r/v48js3/5</a> )</i></i></div>
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As you can see Francis would have been the more consistent pick than almost all these players.</div>
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A question for another day is, had the NHL had adequate concussion guidelines during his career, how great would Eric Lindros have been?</div>
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So my fantasy flock? Who is on your roster who is approaching this threshold? Are you planning on moving him? Or are you going to roll the dice that you have the next Ron Francis and not the next Trevor Linden taking up an important roster spot?</div>
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<br /></div>Matthew Perryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04218144346050739531noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1449959009221788571.post-28190311128078894092012-02-01T09:47:00.000-08:002012-02-06T06:22:57.483-08:00To Thy Own Self Be True<div style="text-align: left;">
Fantasy Flock, Let us play . . .</div>
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There are many things to keep in mind as your progress through your life as a devout member of the Church of Stats. We know stats can lie. We know that interpretation of the same data can be vastly different between two members. We know that the most accurate stats, projections and algorithmic formulas can be trashed and cast out by Lady Luck through an injury, contract dispute or even death. </div>
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However, there is one area that we need to be aware of to be a productive member in the Cult of Fantasy Hockey. Get the tablets ready. Commandment #2 is <b><i>Know thy own biases</i></b>.<br />
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This is perhaps the most important knowledge a fantasy GM can obtain. It affects the way you watch every game, every player. The way you respond to every trade offer or free agent move. Who you draft and who you don't draft.</div>
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-2-wcrIAjV9Q/Tyl_8bgpChI/AAAAAAAAADI/DfZZxAzAUEw/s1600/Pet_Shop_Boys_-_Introspective_HQ_-_Front.jpg"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5704231079194987026" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-2-wcrIAjV9Q/Tyl_8bgpChI/AAAAAAAAADI/DfZZxAzAUEw/s200/Pet_Shop_Boys_-_Introspective_HQ_-_Front.jpg" style="cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 200px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; margin-top: 0px; text-align: center; width: 200px;" /></a><b></b><br />
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<b><b>Let's get Introspective</b></b></div>
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This journey of self exploration begins at home. Look at your team. Ask yourself the following questions.</div>
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<li>What players are untouchable? Why?</li>
<li>What players do I feel are over/under performing? In what ways.</li>
<li>What players would I rather have (realistically) in place of players on your mental trade block?</li>
<li>Do you have a lot of similar players? Same team, same position, injury risk, age?</li>
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Look at an opponent team.</div>
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<li>Who would you target?</li>
<li>What makes them attractive?</li>
<li>Who would you not want on your team? Why?</li>
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Here is a list some of the answers you may find.</div>
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<li>I am risk averse, I like guys that don't get hurt, put up solid numbers with little room for upside.</li>
<li>I like potential. I like young guys with high ceilings. Boom or Bust.</li>
<li>I like guys that play in the East/West/a playoff team/my favorite team?</li>
<li>I prefer forwards, defensemen goalies. Players with low salaries. First line players, role players, Canadian, Europeans, tough guys, skill guys and anything else that sets two players apart.</li>
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I will confess to you. I know my biases well. I like centres they get a lot of second assists. I like first line players they get more minutes. I like undervalued teams in smaller markets because they tend to be more available and produce more evenly. I don't trust goalies. I am risk averse. I prefer players with lower ceilings that have been consistent for a while. I like knowing what to expect. I dislike having Edmonton Oilers on my team. This is the team I cheer for and I typically overvalue the players and if their season tanks I end up watching my fantasy season go down the drain with them.</div>
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-bp2bP-ouFtQ/TymBsMG85lI/AAAAAAAAADU/8hfqBk8nsUM/s1600/ryan_getzlaf_image04.jpg"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5704232999206053458" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-bp2bP-ouFtQ/TymBsMG85lI/AAAAAAAAADU/8hfqBk8nsUM/s200/ryan_getzlaf_image04.jpg" style="cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 200px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; margin-top: 0px; text-align: center; width: 134px;" /></a><b></b><br />
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<b><b>The type of player my good biases help me obtain.</b></b></div>
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However, with the knowledge of these sins I am able to make better choices. I can look at an offer and pick out why I like it. Once I know that I can see if it is a bias that allows me to be successful or one that weakens my team. I can also plan draft strategies. I know that I am risk averse so I pick times in a draft when I believe it is safest to make a reach pick and take them from a designated list of "reach pick players". A different GM my benefit from doing the opposite.</div>
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-m-EQMn-Fw7Y/TymCEsnm2NI/AAAAAAAAADg/w3dACFFIITs/s1600/grabner.jpg"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5704233420249815250" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-m-EQMn-Fw7Y/TymCEsnm2NI/AAAAAAAAADg/w3dACFFIITs/s200/grabner.jpg" style="cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 160px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; margin-top: 0px; text-align: center; width: 200px;" /></a><b></b><br />
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<b><b>They type of player my biases can cost me.</b></b></div>
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With that in mind, it is time for confession my flock. What are your fantasy biases? What has been the penance for your fantasy sinning?</div>
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<br /></div>Matthew Perryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04218144346050739531noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1449959009221788571.post-7673273870573495282012-01-31T09:30:00.000-08:002012-02-06T07:14:46.960-08:00How to use the NHL Standing to your AdvantageMy fantasy flock, let us play . . . <br />
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Any fantasy hockey GM is inundated with trade offers every month. Some are just terrible. It is obvious the other GM is simply looking to "win" a trade, a term the modern media has so unfortunately coined. We will cover this in future columns and I promise it will be a commandment at some point.</div>
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However, today we will discuss the other trades. The close ones. With most leagues' only weeks away from their respective trade deadlines it is important to have an idea of what your needs are down the line. It is also important to understand what you are comfortable in giving up to get what you need. As we all know, "you have to give to get."<br />
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With this in mind, the next time you are poring over a trade that really has you on the fence consider this point. Games played. Like most stats you can use this in your argument to buy or sell a trade. Right now players for the Senators have a little less value in a trade. Since the Senators have played on average five more games than their competition their players have five less games to get you points. You may scoff. You may say such a small drop in the bucket isn't worth my consideration.</div>
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However, think about this. You are offered a trade for two of your Rangers for two of another Team's Rangers. To avoid tainting your opinion with preconceived notions of actual players we will say it is for OTT Fwd 1 and Ott D2 in exchange for NYR Fwd 2 and NYR D1. In the course of the year a forward who scores 200 points over the course of the season nets 11.5 points per game. A defenseman nets 8.9. For argument's sake lets say 11 and 9 points combine for 20 points. If you make the trade and it is a fair trade that works for both sides you may still be happy with the move, but your have essentially given up 40 points in the standings. The 20 you lost from giving up the Rangers players who haven't played those five games yet and the 20 points you can't get because the Senators players have already played them for your competition.</div>
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Depending on your league's scoring it may or may not be a big deal. If you have limits to games played by specific players, if you have had injuries at those positions and are looking to make them up or it your league trades already obtained points between teams. Regardless of all of this it is still vital to fully understand what you are giving and getting by knowing the number of games your assets have left to play. If you are on the fence about making a deal, especially in seasonal leagues, this could be the tipping point either way. On the other side if your trade partner is waffling be sure you point this out to them if the games played is something that benefits them in any given deal.</div>
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For those of you who are advanced in your worship of stats, you can peruse any given team's schedule to see the competition that they have from any point of the season on. Some teams face backloaded schedules heavy with stingy playoff teams or generous clubs rebuilding and content to let the kids learn as they go.</div>
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Players on teams to target as of the All Star Break include:</div>
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New York, San Jose, Anaheim and Boston.</div>
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Players to avoid include ones playing for:</div>
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Ottawa, Colorado, Carolina and Nashville.</div>
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With this in mind why not share the other key stats do you look at while making a deal?</div>Matthew Perryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04218144346050739531noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1449959009221788571.post-16248505781175633092012-01-26T06:21:00.000-08:002012-02-06T07:14:52.499-08:00Blessed be he who draft before us . . .<div style="text-align: left;">
My fantasy flock, let us play . . .</div>
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I am heading to the NHL All Star Fantasy Draft tonight. This is where respective captains, this year <a href="http://www.blogger.com/(http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/players/playerpage/19548/daniel-alfredsson)">Daniel Alfredsson</a> and <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/players/playerpage/19791/zdeno-chara">Zdeno Chara</a>, pick their teams like a game of pond hockey.</div>
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-liCvo6hV6DQ/Tyn5gvZ3HhI/AAAAAAAAAEs/rxKAmSqb4FI/s1600/DSCN9651.JPG"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5704364743917510162" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-liCvo6hV6DQ/Tyn5gvZ3HhI/AAAAAAAAAEs/rxKAmSqb4FI/s200/DSCN9651.JPG" style="cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 150px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; margin-top: 0px; text-align: center; width: 200px;" /></a><b></b><br />
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<b><b><i>Know your opposition, but know your own team and needs better.</i></b></b></div>
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In discussing this event with friends and fellow fans we noticed that one of the nuances of the draft is that both goalies must be selected by the 10th round and the 15th round for defensmen. The league has this rule because both All Star teams have a fixed number of defensemen and goalies per squad. Therefore the team who drafts second could, in theory, wait until their last pick to choose their final goalie and defensemen and obtain the best value for their picks in taking forwards early.</div>
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There is a lesson here for actual fantasy GMs. It is the first commandment of the Church of Stats. Trust me there will be many more than 10, but we had to start somewhere. Get the tablets, bring on the lightening because . . .</div>
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The first commandment is: Thou Shalt Understand The Rules of Your Pool.</div>
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This means you understand and leverage the different statistical scoring systems, games played, salary caps, lottery, payouts, roster limits and anything else your league comes up with. Understanding this and letting affect how you play, and more importantly draft, is vital to any success you wish to have.</div>
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<img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5704365781407587666" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LzpC04TWccE/Tyn6dIWxXVI/AAAAAAAAAE4/fr-fIzpepOE/s200/DSCN9659.JPG" style="color: #0000ee; cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 150px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; margin-top: 0px; text-align: center; text-decoration: underline; width: 200px;" /><b></b><br />
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<b><b><i>What is the key to your next draft?</i></b></b></div>
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I notice in one of the pools I am in people load-up with forwards in the middle rounds. We have 12 teams with 25 player rosters. It makes little sense as those forwards score between 35-55 points. That translates to between 120-140 points in our pool after various additional scoring factors (shots, hits, etc). As you know there is an abundance of forwards who are capable of scoring in that window. <a href="http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm?season=20102011&gameType=2&team=&position=S&country=&status=&viewName=summary&pg=8">146 in 2010-201 to be exact</a>. </div>
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However, there are less defensemen and goalies scoring in that range each year. With the number of injuries and potential for breakout it behoves a manager to stock-up on these positions and at the very worst accumulate trade bait. </div>
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This knowledge will allow you to make decisions based on a player's true value in your pool. It allows you to see past their perceived value due to external factors like the NHL Network, highlight reels, pool magazines, favourite teams and everything else than can cloud your judgement and obscure the statistical facts behind each selection.</div>
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Are you are a sinner when it comes to this commandment? Fret not. If you aren't sure about major or even minor aspects of the pool you are in your penance is this. Go forward, re-read your constitution if you have one and if not at least make a note of scoring categories, the number of players you dress and bench limits. Save it somewhere safe and be ready to use it next August when we prepare for draft season together.</div>
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Let us play . . .</div>
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<br /></div>Matthew Perryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04218144346050739531noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1449959009221788571.post-26363737812641370412012-01-25T07:27:00.000-08:002012-02-06T07:15:05.671-08:00Onward Fantasy Forwards<div>
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My fantasy flock, let us play . . .</div>
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Most pools have between 12 and 14 teams. If you are in a larger league or a smaller league this sermon is not for you.</div>
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As we approach the All Star break many teams on the cusp of contention will be looking for an upgrade a forward. You may still be a few days or weeks from pulling a trade. If you are in a keeper league it could be worse. You may be a tweener and not sure if you are buying or selling. However, a waiver move at this time of year can pay huge dividends either way. If you get the right player now you can use him for the rest of the season or your can move him in a package for a more valuable keeper who is under performing at the deadline.<br />
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For this example let’s take two Central Division rivals. Both <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/players/playerpage/1707857/viktor-stalberg">Victor Stalberg</a> and <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/players/playerpage/19061/todd-bertuzzi">Todd Bertuzzi</a> are available in roughly 20% of standard leagues. If you keep the same squad for the playoffs you may be inclinded to take Bertuzzi as the Red Wings are flying high. However, the Hawks are no slouches either.</div>
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Bertuzzi, has been good for 44+ points for the last two years. He is on pace for 43 and has been more consistent week to week so far this fantasy season. He has more of a chance of slowing down due to age, but is still playing on the second line and second PP unit. There is little competition for his role on the team so nothing to worry about there.</div>
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Stalberg has been a bit more streaky. However, his streakiness happens to coincide with moving to top line with Toews and Kane. You need any player on the top line in Chicago on your fantasy team, but he isn’t getting any power play love. He is on pace for 48 points and shoots the puck a bit more than Bertuzzi for those of you in leagues that score shots. He is also 6’3” so he could increase his physical play if you play in a league that place value on hits or PIMs. This is his third season, traditionally a break-out year for players, but has never posted more than 33 points in a campaign. Combine that with the fact <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/players/playerpage/433207/daniel-carcillo">Dan Carcillo</a> is out for the foreseeable future and the cap tight Hawks mostly likely can’t afford a top six winger and you have a great deal of value.</div>
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So where does that leave you. It is simple. Look at your team. If you have a healthy lead or are just looking for a solid add at this time. Move on Todd Bertuzzi. Odds are he will produce in the second half as he has always produced and net you 18-20 points. </div>
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However, if you are looking for a lottery ticket, but can’t afford a total bust . . . Stalberg is your man. He should post a solid 20 points in the second half with the potential for as many as 33-36 if he can maintain his pace on the top line.</div>
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Best of luck and go in peace.</div>
</div>Matthew Perryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04218144346050739531noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1449959009221788571.post-44327529730095704602012-01-25T06:55:00.000-08:002012-02-06T07:15:15.536-08:00Welcome to Statistical Salvation<div>
Dearly Beloved, </div>
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We are gathered here today in the presence of you and your computer screen, to join your fantasy team and first place in matrimony, which is commended to be honorable among all men. As I stand before you I can openly tell you that there is one thing, and one thing alone that will pry your team out of first place. It is not the devil. It is not just Lady Luck, although she has had a hand in the downfall of many a team. It is not the your opposition and their ability to spend hours a day pouring over stats and to predict the exact player you are targeting, only moments before your pick.</div>
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It is, simply, yourself.<br />
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We are here to help. If you choose to join our congregation, at the alter of fact, you will make better decisions, react faster and win more at fantasy sports. Unlike other blogs we won't tell you what to do. We will present the facts and allow you to decide what is best for your team. As a wise man once said, to some questions there is no answer.</div>
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If you play fantasy sports it is because you are a fan. You probably have a favorite team, favorite player and if you are like most people that affects your decision making. I know it affects mine. For some, to remove that from fantasy sports is to take the fun, the heart and the soul out of the endeavor itself.</div>
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You can say that, you can go down that path and maybe someday the stars will align and the Fantasy Gods will shine down on you with a league championship. However, odds are you are throwing away your money and wasting your time. Do not fret though you can still reach for your favorite players, load up with your favorite team, have your cake and eat it too. You just have to know when the best time is to grab them. That is why we are here. </div>
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So if you choose to embrace the power of numbers, have faith that your heart will follow, come with me and let us play . . .</div>Matthew Perryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04218144346050739531noreply@blogger.com0