To Thy Own Self Be True

Fantasy Flock, Let us play . . .

There are many things to keep in mind as your progress through your life as a devout member of the Church of Stats. We know stats can lie. We know that interpretation of the same data can be vastly different between two members. We know that the most accurate stats, projections and algorithmic formulas can be trashed and cast out by Lady Luck through an injury, contract dispute or even death.

However, there is one area that we need to be aware of to be a productive member in the Cult of Fantasy Hockey. Get the tablets ready. Commandment #2 is Know thy own biases.

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This is perhaps the most important knowledge a fantasy GM can obtain. It affects the way you watch every game, every player. The way you respond to every trade offer or free agent move. Who you draft and who you don't draft.

Let's get Introspective

This journey of self exploration begins at home. Look at your team. Ask yourself the following questions.

• What players are untouchable? Why?
• What players do I feel are over/under performing? In what ways.
• What players would I rather have (realistically) in place of players on your mental trade block?
• Do you have a lot of similar players? Same team, same position, injury risk, age?

Look at an opponent team.

• Who would you target?
• What makes them attractive?
• Who would you not want on your team? Why?

Here is a list some of the answers you may find.

• I am risk averse, I like guys that don't get hurt, put up solid numbers with little room for upside.
• I like potential. I like young guys with high ceilings. Boom or Bust.
• I like guys that play in the East/West/a playoff team/my favorite team?
• I prefer forwards, defensemen goalies. Players with low salaries. First line players, role players, Canadian, Europeans, tough guys, skill guys and anything else that sets two players apart.

I will confess to you. I know my biases well. I like centres they get a lot of second assists. I like first line players they get more minutes. I like undervalued teams in smaller markets because they tend to be more available and produce more evenly. I don't trust goalies. I am risk averse. I prefer players with lower ceilings that have been consistent for a while. I like knowing what to expect. I dislike having Edmonton Oilers on my team. This is the team I cheer for and I typically overvalue the players and if their season tanks I end up watching my fantasy season go down the drain with them.

The type of player my good biases help me obtain.

However, with the knowledge of these sins I am able to make better choices. I can look at an offer and pick out why I like it. Once I know that I can see if it is a bias that allows me to be successful or one that weakens my team. I can also plan draft strategies. I know that I am risk averse so I pick times in a draft when I believe it is safest to make a reach pick and take them from a designated list of "reach pick players". A different GM my benefit from doing the opposite.

They type of player my biases can cost me.

With that in mind, it is time for confession my flock. What are your fantasy biases? What has been the penance for your fantasy sinning?