My fantasy flock, let us play . . .
We are faced with many, many decisions year in and year out as members of the Cult of Fantasy Hockey. However, one of the hardest is when to let a player go. Especially a player who has provided us with so much enjoyment and value over the years. It is hard in fantasy hockey because it is all numbers-based. There is no worrying about what the fans think. There is no pillar of the community. There is no diminished role for the aging veteran who is great in the dressing room. There is simply a roster spot. A roster spot that needs a specific number of points produced from it for you to have a shot a the title.
As I have outlined I love centres. They collect second assists and spit out fantasy production like fishes and loaves. However, they eventually reach the end of the line. I have often wondered, "At what age do #1 centres break down." This week I spent some time studying the Scripture of Statistics and feel I have had a breakthrough. However, before we take a knee at the Alter of Addition lets be true to our stat-loving hearts and check the methodology. For this I only considered centres over six feet tall. These tend to be pillars of teams with a frame that allows them to hold the #1 centre position for years on end. For this reason we omit Yzerman and Sakic. I eliminated the greats because their numbers are stupid and skew our findings. No Gretzky, No Lemieux. I only took players who played in at least two decades (80s, 90s etc.) and at least eight full seasons.
What if this hadn't been such a familiar sight?
The questions I hope to address is:
When should you make a reach on a centre?
When should you cut bait or start moving these types of players down the draft board?
Included in this small samples size are:
- Lindros
- Francis
- Sundin
- Thornton
- Modano
- Federov
- Messier
- Richards
- Nieuwendyk
- Lecavalier
- Marleau
- Linden
If there are any obvious omissions please let me know, but in the meantime let's begin. Here is the first graph.
From this graph you will notice that the career average for these types of centres tends to hover at about .9 points per game. Their peak years tend to be 20-27. There are a few bumps on the radar for 33 year-olds, but don't be fooled. There was just a large number of retirements in that area skewing the stats upward.
My first question was, when should I make a play on a centre. This is a case where I would adhere to the year three breakout philosophy. Believe in that my flock. In a keeper pool I have seen enough to suggestion a minor reach in their second year or at 20 years of age. In re-draft leages this is when I would add them to my "reach list". It seems to be a wise investment. However, there are so many big centres who will never put up even .7 points a game. This practice is a risky one. That is why the second question is more important to me.
For one reason or another you have landed an elite centre on your roster. I have often thought with their size and the minutes they log that these players break down more quickly than we perceive. According to that graph players remain productive into their early 30s, but the decline after 33 tends to be short and swift. Many stop playing or lose their starting roles or valuable power-play time. This means in keeper leagues the time to trade them is between the ages of 32-34. The earlier you move them the more you will probably get in return, if there is a trade to be had, but you could also see multiple years of success for them on another GMs franchise. Be prepared for this, but as long as you are smart about what you get in return it is a penance well worth enduring.
Unloved for years, Ron Francis played for a few unsexy teams,
won a few Cups and even more Fantasy Leagues for savvy GMs.
won a few Cups and even more Fantasy Leagues for savvy GMs.
One final finding I came across was how many productive guys fly under the radar. Rod Brind'Amour helped me to many a title as a 10th or 11th round pick. He wasn't a sexy draft pick, but he was a stable .8 points a game for his career. If I blew this list out he would be included with out a doubt. My point is look for guys like this. One such guy that IS on this list is Ron Francis. Hugely underrated over the course of his career he was actually the top PPG getting on this list in 11 years. Including the top PPG guy for 18 year-olds on this list and every year except for two for all 32-43 year olds. Think about how much lower you could have gotten Francis in drafts instead of Messier or Fedorov? Those are reading from the Gospel of Numbers that make a difference between 4th and 1st.
Look at he graph below to see how guys performed year in and year out.
As you can see Francis would have been the more consistent pick than almost all these players.
A question for another day is, had the NHL had adequate concussion guidelines during his career, how great would Eric Lindros have been?
So my fantasy flock? Who is on your roster who is approaching this threshold? Are you planning on moving him? Or are you going to roll the dice that you have the next Ron Francis and not the next Trevor Linden taking up an important roster spot?
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